By Nuhu Yahaya
Ilorin, April 19, ’26 (TNZ) Every electoral cycle in history tells two stories. One is of noise: the rallies, the slogans, and the sudden swings that pundits chase on television. The other is of victory: the states that never waver, and the zones that vote like bedrock while the rest of the country argues with itself. Since 2015, that second story has exemplified Kwara, my state.
The numbers, when you lay them bare arithmetically, do not shout. But they murmur with the certainty and confidence of a thing proved three times. In 2015, as General Muhammadu Buhari’s red broom swept through the North-Central and the All Progressives Congress (APC) sought its first national foothold, Kwara — all zones included — gave APC 69.5 per cent.
Break that figure into its senatorial parts, and a pattern emerges that should prove the South does not deserve to be vilified over the prevailing desire of Kwarans for BOB to succeed Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq in 2027.
There are ample lessons from the past. In 2015, Kwara Central, home to Ilorin’s teeming wards and expansive local government areas, delivered 68.1 per cent. Kwara North, with its farming belts from Baruten to Pategi — my natal home — posted 69.8 per cent. Kwara South — Offa, Irepodun, Ifelodun, Isin, Oke Ero, Ekiti, Oyun — returned 72.4 per cent.
It was not the largest in raw votes, or absolute number, as mathematicians would say. But it was the highest in proportion, and the clearest in intent. While Central was still negotiating its divorce from PDP strongholds, and North was weighing federal promises against local needs, South had already decided.
That decision did not happen in a vacuum. In 2015, Bashir Bolarinwa became the pioneer substantive chairman of the APC in Kwara State. A former council and federal legislator, former local government chairman, public administrator and tested politician, BOB understood that loyalty is built before the billboards go up.
Let’s face it, the fusion of ACN, CPC, ANPP and a faction of APGA into APC in 2013 had been easier in Kwara South than elsewhere. By the time Buhari’s name was on the ballot, the South had spent two years rehearsing victory.
So when the results came, South did not just vote for APC. It insulated the APC. Its 45-point margin over PDP was the widest in the state. In an election where every percentage point was a rebuttal to the idea that the North-Central could be taken for granted, Kwara South gave APC its safest cushion.
Four years later, in 2019, the “O To Ge” slogan of the revolutionary movement flipped every elective seat in Kwara to APC. Ilorin roared. Kwara Central jumped to 65.3 per cent for Buhari and produced 308,984 APC votes, the largest haul in the state. Pundits called Central the engine of the new order.
Although Kwara South also moved slightly from 72.4 to 70.1, that small dip had a different meaning. Central’s surge was a protest; South’s steadiness was a confirmation. South had been APC in 2015 without a wave.
In 2019, it simply stayed. While Central’s 35-point margin was born of anger, South’s 40-point margin was born of habit. As a grassroots politician, I know too well that habit is more valuable than fury: the latter spends itself, while the former governs.
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Then came 2023, the election that tested every assumption. Peter Obi’s Labour Party infiltrated Ilorin with a language of disruption. It succeeded in snatching 11.2 per cent of Central’s vote.
When the chips were down, Kwara Central gave 48.7 per cent to APC, a 16.6-point collapse from 2019. For the first time in eight years, Central felt competitive — and was terrifyingly challenged.
Kwara South did not. It returned 63.8 per cent for the APC. Its margin over PDP was 35.3 points — larger than Central’s margin in 2015. Labour managed only 5.9 per cent there. North held as well, at 62.1, but South again led.
Let’s run the subtraction test. Using INEC’s declared 2023 figures, removing Kwara South from the tally drops APC’s statewide share from 54.9 to the cliff-edge of 50. Remove Kwara Central, and APC still wins with 57.4.
Therefore, in the year the APC was weakest, South was not the biggest by volume. It was the most necessary in proportion.
This is the argument for contribution that raw vote totals obscure. Central gives APC its crowd; South gives it its floor. A floor is what keeps you from falling through the roof when it leaks. Beyond armchair analysis, this is a salient consideration that drives the winning strategy of any serious political party, and the basis of leaders’ pleas for consensus against a rigid obsession with power rotation.
The roots of that floor go back to 2015 and to men like BOB, who chaired a party that in Kwara South did not have to introduce itself. The ACN had gained ground in Kwara South since 2011. When APC was born, South did not convert. It arrived.
And as it is globally, elections are remembered for their swings, but they are won by their constants. There is no denying that Kwara Central can swing, and has. Kwara North can be loyal, even if smaller. Kwara South has been both loyal and large enough to matter, and it has been so consistently three times in a row.
To the public, that’s a pattern. But in the arithmetic of power, it’s a kingmaker. The king may wear different names — Buhari, Tinubu — and the capital may cheer or jeer, but the South of Kwara has voted like a promise kept.
That is not noise. That is bedrock. And bedrock, unlike slogans, does not need to raise its voice to be heard in Abuja. For Abuja itself can decipher the reverberating yearnings of Kwarans — Central, North and South — for Bashir Omolaja Bolarinwa. This is the people’s voice. BOB is the people’s choice. (TNZ)
Yahaya, a staunch APC supporter, wrote from Lafiagi.
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